Thursday 17 April 2014

Thursday 10 April 2014

We Cannot Trust Any Lok Sabha Opinion Polls





If the argument from Timothy Ferris' 'The Science of Liberty' is to be believed, the collective wisdom of the average citizen is a good predictor of results. That would mean that any opinion poll would be able to correctly predict the result of a general election before hand. If this is considered to be true then one would assume that the BJP would clearly lead in the 2014 polls. But this may not necessarily be the case. The reason is due to unreliable opinion polls.

          Why are opinion polls so unpredictable, particularly in India ?